April 28 exchanges

Fine - this is April! Let's see what the polls show once - if - Obama is the one and only Democratic candidate. And if he gets support from the Clintons, as the candidate should. Lots of "ifs" - hypotheticals - so polls right now are not realistic.

- - Ing, April 28, 2008


The article below may be what sways the supers...

[begin quote]
April 28, 2008
Poll shows Clinton has better shot of beating McCain
Posted: 04:08 PM ET

Hillary Clinton would beat McCain by 9 points, a new poll shows.
(CNN) – A new poll out Monday appears to bolster Hillary Clinton's argument that she is in a better position than rival Barack Obama to beat John McCain in a general election match up.
According to a newly-released poll from The Associated Press and Ipsos, Clinton would beat McCain by a wide 9-point margin, 50 percent to 41 percent. But when Obama faces McCain, the two are statistically tied — Obama holds a two point edge over McCain, within the poll's margin of error.
The Clinton campaign has long argued the New York senator has a better shot at beating McCain because of her demonstrated appeal with working class white voters — a demographic that is key to winning several swing states.
[end quote]

- - Fair, April 28, 2008


In any event, the one problem I see is that Hillary Clinton is seen as the more "in touch" among non-suburban and urban voters. (I was hoping to run in to Sen. Clinton when I was at Kmart this past weekend. I was hoping she would be picking up some discount detergent or socks. She wasn't there...).

If the race becomes McCain vs. Clinton, the Republicans will immediately, as they did with Kerry, turn her in to the elitist. Time sort of touched on this in an article in the current issue, noting how Bill Clinton was easily able to avoid this tactic because of his public love for McDonald's (which didn't seem calculated).

I'm beginning to think more and more that the "elitist" topic should not worry me so much about Obama for the very reason I constructed above. Again... will we see either of them changing the oil on a Ford Taurus in Indiana in the coming week?

(I'm all over the map with thoughts today - a lot going on.)

- - Fair, April 28, 2008


There would definitely be bad blood, not only from campaign tactics thus far, but from the way she would get the nomination. She'll only be able to get it by super-delegates "over turning" the elected delegates. Even if this is allowed by the rules, it will be perceived as stealing the nomination from Obama. And he may be great at uniting fighting factions and so forth, but I don't think he'll be able to do enough to overcome the bad blood. I agree with you that more African Americans will react to the situation by sitting out the election than by voting Republican. So it will be bad all down the ticket.

John Edwards says no more VP for me - I tend to believe him. Certainly Obama as VP to Clinton would help with the black vote - would he do it? For a chance in 2016? He'd still be relatively young at about 54 (he's 46 now?). Being the veep would be a heck of a lot better experience than being first lady, as she touts. No matter how unlikely it seems, the Jack Kennedy/LBJ match-up must have seemed almost as unlikely, at the time.

Gotta go read my own favorite professional blog - Media Notes, at washingtonpost.com

- - Ing, April 28, 2008


I've read over some material about Rev. Wright's interview. He brings up valid points, but, unfortunately, like you said, they aren't fit for 15-second sound bites. I've spent so much time wondering about "working-class whites" voting for Obama - the real question now, even more, is can Hillary Clinton expect the African-American community to support her?

I don't see how anyone can assume that if she is the nominee she will have automatic broad African-American support. Not after the events of late. While I don't think there will be a defection to the waiting with open arms republicans, sitting the election out may be a problem for the Dems. This demographic is crucial to a Democrat winning Michigan (Wayne County), tipping PA to the Dem. in the Philly area, possibly Georgia, and adding to the Dem. percentage in Illinois and NY.

John McCain may have a similar problem with strict social conservatives. I guess it all depends on who each candidate selects to be the VP on the ticket.

McCain will need to play to the right - Huckabee or similar.
Obama probably will need a military guy - my wish would be Wes Clark
Clinton... John Edwards? Obama? (Would they turn her down?) Evan Byah from Ind?

- - Fair, April 28, 2008


Sen. Kerry is a big Obama backer. He had an article in favor of Obama, opposite Gov. Rendell's article favoring Clinton, in the Newsweek that came out before the Penn. primary.

I would really be disappointed in the Clintons, if Obama prevails, the process is deemed "fair" and they don't strongly support him. Besides, if they are that much of SORE LOSERS, how does that help them with the 2012 strategy (Rep. Clyburn - Clintons do all they can to tear down Obama, so he loses to McCain, so that Hillary can try again in 2012, but Obama is damaged goods).

- - Ing, April 28, 2008


Unfortunately, outside of vague, general "come together" speeches on TV, I can not see any Clinton help. I can see him helping her, however, for the good of the party.

I envision John and Elizabeth Edwards, the Kerry's, and Al and Tipper Gore doing more work post-primary. I know Edwards and Gore have remained silent, but has John Kerry endorsed? Am I remembering correctly... was Teresa Heinz-Kerry (sp?) at an Obama campaign event in the past month? Did John Kerry come out and support Obama?

- - Fair, April 28, 2008


Can you see Hillary and Billary and Chillary whole-heartedly campaigning for him there and anywhere needed?

- - Ing, April 28, 2008


I agree with your thinking that Obama can win the big states easily with the exception of the following: Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Texas I think is an equal toss up among all three candidates while OH and PA have votes who may be turned off by Obama - a reason that could be as simple as they are unfamiliar with him.

- - Fair, April 28, 2008


I haven't heard anything about Clinton HQ moving - perhaps they thought they needed larger quarters?

I, too, listened very carefully to Howard Dean on Meet the Press. He's taking a very rules and process-oriented approach. Doesn't make for bold leadership, but then again, perhaps it is what the current situation needs - to walk such a tightrope between offending major camps on one side or the other - camps whose votes are needed in November! Listening from the perspective of being pro-Obama, I heard, yes the super-delegates can vote their conscience, and thereby, theoretically, overturn the vote of the elected delegates BUT it hasn't happened in recent (Dean's) memory. Super-delegates want to win, most of all - granted. But what if the cost is the "destruction of the Democratic Party"? That's why Dean and everyone of his level is saying, it will all depend on how the loser supports the winner. And we all know who are the most SORE LOSERS, in this contest.

I hear this some, but wish I heard it more: Obama hasn't won the big states? The states with the most electoral votes? What evidence exists that if he were the only Democrat to vote for, he couldn't win those states? None. . . because SHE refuses to give up and go away.

I predict, sad to say, that SHE will win Indiana and he will win North Carolina, and nothing much will change unless her margin is tiny and his is huge.

- - Ing, April 28, 2008


Myself, I am Catholic, but only because that's what I am told I am. I, along with most of my family, have not been practicing since I can remember.

Some news re: the Clinton campaign. As you know, the national HQ is down the street and I pass it frequently. For about a week now, maybe even longer, all signs indicating that the HQ is within this one building have vanished. At one point there used to be many campaign yard signs sprinkled throughout the block and near the entrance... nothing now. Even the sign I used to see on the door is gone. Any news about Clinton's campaign having to move?

I've been paying close attention to words from Howard Dean (and even from Nancy Pelosi during her interview last week with Larry King); the talk about letting the superdelegates act independently seems to be more in line with a Clinton win. For the most part during these types of interviews I think the candidates and party leaders are speaking more to the superdelegates than to any general audience. I don't know how that argument could continue to be made if Obama wins both Indiana and North Carolina. Obama needs to spending ALL of his time in Indiana...

- - Fair, April 28, 2008


As planned, I watched the entire Bill Moyers Journal interview with Rev. Wright and I feel that the reporters/pundits have totally miscast it - on purpose, for the most part. They say that Bill Moyers did not ask the tough questions about the snippets and that the longer excerpts which Moyers showed - of the post 9/11 "chickens come home to roost" sermon and the "g. d. america" sermon - only reinforced how radical and inflammatory the reverend was. I didn't think this was true at all. Now, we haven't discussed religion at length, to my recollection. I was brought up Lutheran, converted to being a Jehovah's Witness in my twenties, was "kicked out" and now, consider myself a deist, if anything. But I am very interested in the structure and history of Christianity over the millenia and have read many books on the subject. Although my past really has nothing in common with Black Liberation Theology, I can appreciate the history which Rev. Wright provided - going back to slavery. Of course present day newscasters want to stay away from that! I can also understand the rhetorical structure of the sermons. Even to play a 5 minute excerpt versus a 15-second clip does not capture that structure fairly.

Donna Brazile, on This Week with George S,, said it best, in answer to the question, Why is Rev. Wright speaking out now? She said that it was about the credibility of the black church, which was a bigger issue, frankly, than the political fortunes of one black man (I'm paraphrasing). I just hope that Obama can stick to his guns and not give in to pressure to totally repudiate Wright - if he does, then he will be falling into the same-old-same-old Clinton pattern - do anything, say anything, to get elected.

- - Ing, April 28, 2008